Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1787 at 07:09, 6%.

Nonstops that day


WN 1787 Southwest	FLL 07:09	HOU 08:44	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1788 Southwest	FLL 18:17	HOU 19:49	37%	9%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 22m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:31 → ATL 13:28DL 1334	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 51m	97%	87%
American Details →	FLL 12:46 → DFW 15:02AA 1429	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 18m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 19m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON