Today: WN 1421 at 20:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet today WN 1421 HNL 20:35 → KOA 21:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1128 HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:31 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1421 Southwest	HNL 20:35	KOA 21:40	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest	HNL 20:27	KOA 21:32	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1964 Southwest	HNL 17:16	KOA 18:21	12%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 1851 Southwest	HNL 17:06	KOA 18:11	13%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 940 Southwest	HNL 13:20	KOA 14:25	16%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1649 Southwest	HNL 13:19	KOA 14:24	17%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 1168 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:52	KOA 19:53	19%	5%	2.3%	88%
AS 1188 Alaska	HNL 18:45	KOA 19:43	20%	4%	2.3%	no record
AS 1198 Alaska	HNL 21:06	KOA 22:04	22%	4%	2.3%	no record
AS 1178 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:03	KOA 21:50	24%	4%	2.0%	84%
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:36	KOA 12:37	24%	5%	2.3%	74%
AS 1158 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:59	KOA 18:45	25%	4%	2.0%	80%
AS 1118 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:55	KOA 13:56	26%	4%	2.3%	77%
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:03	KOA 13:04	27%	4%	2.3%	74%
AS 1138 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:14	KOA 16:01	28%	4%	2.3%	76%
AS 1148 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:33	KOA 17:19	28%	4%	2.3%	79%
AS 1128 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:30	KOA 14:31	29%	4%	2.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON