Today: WN 1863 at 20:36 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–29%.

Safest bet today WN 1863 HNL 20:36 → LIH 21:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1083 HNL 13:11 → LIH 14:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1863 Southwest	HNL 20:36	LIH 21:33	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1862 Southwest	HNL 17:13	LIH 18:10	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1972 Southwest	HNL 17:21	LIH 18:18	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4195 Southwest	HNL 20:41	LIH 21:38	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1499 Southwest	HNL 13:33	LIH 14:30	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1668 Southwest	HNL 13:30	LIH 14:27	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1183 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:20	LIH 22:13	19%	4%	2.0%	96%worse than usual
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:34	LIH 20:27	20%	4%	2.0%	79%
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:46	LIH 19:39	20%	5%	2.0%	83%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:15	LIH 18:08	22%	4%	2.0%	75%
AS 1103 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:38	LIH 15:31	24%	4%	2.0%	75%
AS 1133 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:33	LIH 17:26	25%	4%	2.0%	65%
AS 1113 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:17	LIH 16:10	25%	4%	2.0%	68%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:56	LIH 16:49	25%	4%	2.0%	68%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:11	LIH 14:04	29%	4%	2.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON