Today: UA 1346 at 22:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet today UA 1346 HNL 22:10 → SFO 06:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 14:51 → SFO 22:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:38	SFO 18:06	10%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:08	SFO 22:21	17%	4%	0.8%	79%
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 13:21	SFO 21:23	17%	4%	0.8%	83%
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:51	SFO 22:52	27%	6%	2.2%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	1h 09m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	7h 18m	87%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON