Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Charleston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	6h 42m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 36m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 09m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20	2h 53m Dallas	DAL 15:03 → CHS 18:36WN 4004	6h 36m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → CHS 20:49DL 2493	5h 33m	96%	85%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:01 → CHS 15:37AA 2166	5h 06m	91%	76%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:04 → CHS 23:00AA 1422	7h 58m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON