Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1670 Southwest	HOU 12:03	FLL 15:31	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	HOU 18:20	FLL 21:46	21%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	5h 43m	98%	80%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:40 → FLL 16:30AA 1373	5h 59m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 22m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	6h 40m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20	3h 34m Dallas	DAL 15:44 → FLL 19:24WN 4538	7h 24m	100%	76%
American Details →	HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → FLL 23:07AA 1847	8h 05m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON