tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4422 at 18:32, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4422 Southwest HOU 18:32 MIA 22:08 20% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:30 → DAL 09:40WN 10 2h 41m Dallas DAL 12:21 → MIA 16:12WN 3346 6h 42m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 38m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:54 → MIA 18:51DL 719 7h 11m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 43m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → MIA 17:12AA 2461 6h 41m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → HOU 14:02 → DFW 15:25AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:58 → MIA 21:55AA 2050 6h 53m 92% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON