Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4433 at 18:20, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4433 Southwest	HOU 18:20	PNS 20:01	25%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	7h 00m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 23m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	3h 16m Dallas	DAL 13:51 → PNS 15:36WN 1759	6h 06m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	6h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:16 → ATL 17:23DL 1195	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021	6h 42m	98%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:31 → DFW 10:55AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:49AA 2328	5h 18m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON