Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 am at White Plains)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 10:54, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops today


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:26	TPA 09:37	4%	3%	0.8%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:00 → ATL 08:19DL 2379	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 39m	98%	82%
American Details →	HPN 06:00 → ORD 07:41AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → TPA 13:00AA 2052	7h 00m	99%	78%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 39m Washington	DCA 10:29 → TPA 13:09AA 1694	6h 39m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:06 → MSP 16:54DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:54 → TPA 23:05DL 2385	7h 59m	95%	74%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → TPA 14:15AA 436	6h 20m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	6h 07m	99%	70%
American Details →	HPN 10:54 → CLT 12:55AA 5431 · flown by PSA	54m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → TPA 15:39AA 1982	4h 45m	88%	63%
American Details →	HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 17:36 → TPA 19:32AA 2753	5h 49m	95%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON