Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1580 at 09:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 IAD 09:34 → MCO 11:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4355 IAD 20:10 → MCO 22:01 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta	IAD 09:34	MCO 11:50	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:30	MCO 01:10	10%	5%	0.9%	84%
UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 11:18	MCO 13:36	11%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	12%	5%	1.3%	86%
DL 1513 Delta	IAD 22:46	MCO 01:00	16%	8%	2.6%	no record
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	20%	9%	2.1%	71%
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:46	MCO 18:25	26%	10%	1.3%	no record
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 20:10	MCO 22:01	27%	11%	4.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON