Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	13h 19m	100%	87%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	2h 24m Denver	DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:57UA 280	10h 57m	99%	82%
American Details →	IAH 11:38 → ORD 14:20AA 2504	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34AA 375	11h 56m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	3h 28m Seattle	SEA 20:49 → ANC 23:35AS 228	11h 57m	99%	79%
American Details →	IAH 12:11 → DFW 13:31AA 2438	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:04 → ANC 19:12AA 399	10h 01m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	IAH 10:49 → MSP 13:36DL 2656	52m Minneapolis	MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411	9h 39m	80%	69%
Alaska Details →	IAH 06:02 → SEA 08:26AS 241	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 11:53 → ANC 14:36AS 1333	11h 34m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON