Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1069 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1069 IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4106 IAH 21:00 → ATL 00:18 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1069 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:40	ATL 08:50	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1315 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	ATL 10:04	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2304 Delta	IAH 08:09	ATL 11:19	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1030 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	ATL 10:39	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	IAH 09:41	ATL 12:48	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	IAH 12:09	ATL 15:21	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:38	ATL 17:54	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:34	ATL 21:54	13%	4%	0.5%	72%
UA 2240 United	IAH 18:11	ATL 21:29	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1651 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:46	ATL 21:51	16%	4%	0.5%	55%
F9 1404 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:18	ATL 09:38	21%	6%	0.8%	68%
F9 4106 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 21:00	ATL 00:18	25%	10%	0.8%	56%
UA 4079 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	ATL 15:16	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON