Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6214 IAH 08:00 → STL 10:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1528 IAH 20:17 → STL 22:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6214 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 08:00	STL 10:17	9%	3%	1.0%	88%
UA 2042 United	IAH 12:02	STL 14:27	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
G7 4479 GoJet	IAH 18:11	STL 20:12	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1528 United	IAH 20:17	STL 22:41	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON