Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1353 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1353 IAH 07:21 → TPA 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1312 IAH 18:10 → TPA 21:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1353 United Flight history →	IAH 07:21	TPA 10:52	8%	3%	1.2%	94%
UA 1501 United Flight history →	IAH 12:50	TPA 16:12	17%	5%	1.3%	74%
UA 1312 United Flight history →	IAH 18:10	TPA 21:29	22%	5%	1.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON