Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4233 Envoy	ILM 07:05	MIA 09:14	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	ILM 08:03	MIA 10:13	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 07m	97%	83%
United Details →	ILM 05:59 → EWR 07:44UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	1h 13m Newark	EWR 08:57 → MIA 11:56UA 2785	5h 57m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:52 → LGA 08:33DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 32m	96%	80%
American Details →	ILM 08:03 → CLT 09:21AA 2695	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:09 → MIA 13:20AA 2768	5h 17m	93%	79%
American Details →	ILM 08:21 → CLT 09:43AA 2960	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 50m	92%	79%
American Details →	ILM 07:14 → ORD 08:47AA 3811 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → MIA 14:10AA 2689	6h 56m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 26m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON