Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3811 ILM 07:14 → ORD 08:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 4020 ILM 17:48 → ORD 19:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3811 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 07:14	ORD 08:46	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 12:16	ORD 13:52	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
YX 4442 Republic	ILM 10:25	ORD 10:55	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4020 Envoy	ILM 17:48	ORD 19:11	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON