Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5797 ILM 08:12 → PHL 09:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5858 ILM 14:00 → PHL 15:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5797 Piedmont	ILM 08:12	PHL 09:58	13%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 6133 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ILM 15:22	PHL 17:07	13%	4%	0.9%	53%
PT 5862 Piedmont	ILM 17:35	PHL 19:16	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
PT 5954 Piedmont	ILM 13:11	PHL 14:56	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
PT 5858 Piedmont	ILM 14:00	PHL 15:41	14%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON