Today looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2203 ITO 15:28 → HNL 16:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1081 ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2203 Southwest	ITO 15:28	HNL 16:35	4%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2085 Southwest	ITO 15:22	HNL 16:27	4%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2086 Southwest	ITO 18:45	HNL 19:50	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2204 Southwest	ITO 18:58	HNL 20:05	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 1111 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:48	HNL 19:56	9%	2%	0.6%	73%
AS 1061 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 14:59	HNL 15:55	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
AS 1071 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 15:45	HNL 16:39	9%	3%	0.6%	74%
AS 1101 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:18	HNL 19:26	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
AS 1121 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 19:30	HNL 20:38	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 1131 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 20:40	HNL 21:48	9%	3%	0.6%	57%
AS 1081 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 16:47	HNL 17:40	12%	3%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON