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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 7h 20m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406 9h 46m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:46 → BZN 12:09DL 9968 8h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 10:05 → BZN 12:30AA 2415 8h 31m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:59 → MSP 19:45DL 2245 2h 38m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 53m 97% 90%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:29 → BZN 15:34AA 947 9h 19m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON