tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 95% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 8h 46m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 10h 23m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 16:58 → OAK 17:44DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:50 → RDU 19:06DL 5150 · flown by Endeavor 2h 26m Raleigh/Durham RDU 21:32 → OAK 00:04 +1DL 8947 10h 14m 93% 83%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 2h 01m Seattle SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533 10h 19m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 48m Seattle SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706 9h 17m 79% 61%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 57m Seattle SEA 17:16 → OAK 19:11AS 1328 9h 11m 84% 60%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35 2h 28m San Diego SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon 10h 03m 98% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON