Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Cleveland, leaving 09:12, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SAT 12:11	11%	2%	0.4%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:13 → SAT 19:50DL 2893	7h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SAT 17:15DL 1465	7h 15m	97%	84%
American Details →	JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01AA 171	1h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → SAT 16:06AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest	11h 06m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	8h 36m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 09:12 → CLE 10:57DL 5018 · flown by Endeavor	1h 05m Cleveland	CLE 12:02 → SAT 14:10DL 816	5h 58m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → SAT 00:20 +1DL 1508	7h 40m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:26 → SEA 10:20AS 21	55m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → SAT 17:20AS 9461	10h 54m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON