Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:32 pm at Kailua/Kona); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 14:43, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 14:43 → HNL 15:44AS 1107	3h 50m Honolulu	HNL 19:34 → LIH 20:27AS 1173	5h 44m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:22 → HNL 16:23AS 1117	2h 23m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → LIH 19:39AS 1163	4h 17m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → LIH 22:13AS 1183	5h 40m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:43 → HNL 15:44AS 1107	49m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → LIH 17:26AS 1133	2h 43m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON