tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 113 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1447 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1447 ONT 05:59 → OAK 07:22 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2267 LAX 14:25 → SFO 15:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1447 Southwest ONT 05:59 OAK 07:22 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2326 Southwest LAX 06:59 SJC 08:24 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3780 Southwest SNA 06:45 SJC 08:24 2% 1% 0.8% no record
UA 781 United LAX 05:49 SFO 07:17 2% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2454 Southwest LGB 06:48 OAK 08:17 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1647 Southwest BUR 08:31 SJC 09:47 2% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 2639 Southwest SNA 07:25 OAK 08:50 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2468 Southwest ONT 09:10 SJC 10:27 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2645 Southwest SNA 08:55 SJC 10:19 4% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 2569 Southwest BUR 10:53 SJC 12:09 4% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 2427 Southwest BUR 08:13 OAK 09:33 4% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 2775 Southwest BUR 09:45 OAK 11:05 4% 1% 1.3% no record
WN 2338 Southwest LGB 08:46 SJC 10:04 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 690 Southwest ONT 11:10 OAK 12:32 5% 2% 0.6% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest LAX 07:46 SJC 09:18 6% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1531 Southwest LAX 09:03 OAK 10:26 6% 1% 0.6% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 21:34 SJC 22:58 6% 3% 0.6% 88%
WN 2767 Southwest SNA 09:07 OAK 10:31 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2378 Southwest LAX 09:49 SJC 11:06 6% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3786 Southwest SNA 20:26 SJC 21:56 6% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 955 Southwest ONT 13:04 SJC 14:22 6% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 1380 Delta LAX 09:27 SJC 10:49 6% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 2253 Southwest BUR 14:32 SJC 15:49 6% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 2549 Southwest BUR 11:57 OAK 13:18 6% 2% 1.2% no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 06:45 SFO 08:30 6% 3% 1.3% 93%
WN 3185 Southwest ONT 17:56 OAK 19:18 6% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2570 Southwest BUR 16:04 SJC 17:20 6% 4% 1.0% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 6% 5% 0.6% 90%
WN 377 Southwest SNA 19:40 SJC 21:10 7% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 1681 Southwest SNA 11:22 SJC 12:48 7% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 692 Southwest ONT 14:32 OAK 15:47 7% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2895 Southwest SNA 17:06 OAK 18:35 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 353 Southwest SNA 11:11 OAK 12:40 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2430 Southwest BUR 18:40 SJC 19:56 7% 4% 1.0% no record
WN 1692 Southwest SNA 19:10 OAK 20:38 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3094 Southwest ONT 18:40 SJC 20:02 8% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 3767 Southwest SNA 15:08 OAK 16:37 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 755 Southwest LGB 11:30 OAK 12:52 8% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest LAX 18:06 SJC 19:30 8% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 2896 Southwest SNA 15:07 SJC 16:32 8% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4875 Southwest BUR 16:56 OAK 18:14 8% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 2965 Southwest LGB 15:05 OAK 16:27 8% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 678 Southwest LAX 17:04 SJC 18:22 8% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2712 Southwest LGB 11:46 SJC 13:06 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2329 Southwest LGB 16:39 OAK 18:02 9% 3% 0.5% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 9% 2% 0.8% 94%
WN 2428 Southwest BUR 18:56 OAK 20:08 9% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 2245 Southwest BUR 13:32 OAK 14:50 9% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 2449 Southwest LAX 14:58 SJC 16:18 9% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 1359 Delta LAX 16:01 SJC 17:25 9% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 1752 Southwest LAX 16:48 OAK 18:10 10% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2716 Southwest LGB 19:43 SJC 21:05 10% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 5921 SkyWest ONT 16:04 SFO 18:03 10% 6% 0.8% no record
DL 1420 Delta LAX 20:47 SJC 22:10 10% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 653 United SNA 07:16 SFO 08:52 11% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 488 United Flight history → BUR 07:00 SFO 08:28 11% 4% 0.9% 80%
WN 2715 Southwest LGB 15:39 SJC 16:59 11% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2702 Southwest LAX 13:13 OAK 14:36 11% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 1316 Southwest LAX 20:25 SJC 21:41 11% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 3313 SkyWest SNA 16:47 SFO 18:25 11% 5% 0.9% no record
UA 1387 United ONT 08:00 SFO 09:32 11% 3% 0.7% no record
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:27 SFO 09:01 11% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:50 12% 6% 0.8% 67%
OO 3499 SkyWest SNA 19:59 SFO 21:35 12% 5% 1.0% no record
UA 2111 United SNA 18:07 SFO 19:41 13% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 689 Delta LAX 12:09 SFO 13:32 13% 4% 0.7% no record
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 18:03 SFO 19:33 13% 5% 0.9% 65%
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 13% 5% 0.6% 61%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 13% 3% 0.6% 49%
WN 489 Southwest LAX 18:55 OAK 20:16 13% 4% 0.5% no record
UA 1245 United Flight history → LAX 11:47 SFO 13:23 13% 5% 0.6% 79%
AA 3138 American Flight history → LAX 17:28 SFO 18:59 13% 7% 0.6% 69%
OO 6276 SkyWest LAX 14:27 SFO 16:05 13% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 1066 United BUR 16:14 SFO 18:02 13% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 3178 Southwest LAX 15:31 SFO 16:53 14% 6% 0.5% no record
UA 469 United Flight history → LAX 13:18 SFO 14:46 14% 5% 0.6% 77%
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 14% 6% 0.6% 57%
AS 726 Alaska LAX 16:57 SFO 18:18 14% 5% 0.7% no record
AS 1501 Alaska LAX 07:12 SFO 08:32 14% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:43 SFO 11:15 14% 4% 0.8% 63%
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 12:01 SFO 13:42 14% 6% 0.8% 76%
WN 2922 Southwest BUR 17:16 SFO 18:35 14% 4% 0.9% no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 19:27 SFO 21:05 14% 5% 1.0% 50%
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 14% 7% 0.5% 68%
WN 3169 Southwest LAX 08:26 SFO 09:46 14% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3386 SkyWest LAX 10:06 SFO 11:40 14% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 1110 American LAX 11:00 SFO 12:30 15% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 1320 United SNA 14:56 SFO 16:31 15% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 15% 4% 0.8% 52%
OO 5616 SkyWest SNA 09:43 SFO 11:24 15% 6% 1.3% no record
UA 2837 United LAX 18:56 SFO 20:39 15% 7% 0.5% no record
OO 5905 SkyWest ONT 10:59 SFO 12:35 15% 6% 1.2% no record
WN 2780 Southwest BUR 08:21 SFO 09:38 15% 4% 2.1% no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 19:34 SFO 21:04 15% 6% 0.7% 63%
OO 3054 SkyWest SNA 09:15 SFO 10:49 15% 6% 1.6% no record
WN 2374 Southwest LAX 17:49 SFO 19:11 15% 6% 0.5% no record
UA 1905 United LAX 10:22 SFO 11:53 15% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 3333 SkyWest SNA 14:06 SFO 15:50 15% 7% 0.8% no record
WN 2776 Southwest BUR 13:53 SFO 15:13 15% 4% 1.3% no record
WN 2797 Southwest LAX 13:16 SFO 14:36 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2593 Southwest LAX 11:10 SFO 12:30 16% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 4798 SkyWest BUR 09:33 SFO 11:24 16% 8% 1.6% no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:45 SFO 10:21 16% 5% 2.1% 50%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:11 SFO 19:35 17% 6% 0.7% 45%
AS 1406 Alaska LAX 14:24 SFO 15:57 18% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 1693 Delta LAX 20:50 SFO 22:14 18% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 1508 United Flight history → BUR 18:42 SFO 20:10 18% 6% 0.8% 41%
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 10:53 SFO 12:21 18% 5% 0.8% 52%
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 18% 6% 0.9% 66%
AS 519 Alaska LAX 08:20 SFO 09:43 19% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 91 Alaska LAX 14:50 SFO 16:10 20% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 22% 6% 0.5% 28%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 22% 6% 0.7% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON