Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:10	ORD 11:27	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 461 Southwest	LAX 05:59	MDW 12:08	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 2358 Southwest	LAX 00:08	MDW 06:03	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ORD 13:09	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 3082 Southwest	ONT 00:08	MDW 05:53	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1035 Southwest	BUR 07:27	MDW 13:15	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2226 United Flight history →	ONT 06:58	ORD 13:03	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ORD 14:08	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1328 United	LAX 23:02	ORD 05:02	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 991 American	LAX 22:29	ORD 04:35	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3161 American	LAX 23:28	ORD 05:39	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:31	ORD 15:47	11%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:43	ORD 22:54	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	13%	5%	0.5%	67%
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	13%	5%	0.7%	62%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	SNA 10:37	ORD 16:53	14%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	14%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:06	ORD 23:14	15%	6%	0.6%	42%
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:13	ORD 16:17	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2434 Southwest	LGB 11:17	MDW 17:01	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:31	ORD 17:44	16%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:13	ORD 21:12	16%	6%	0.6%	91%
WN 335 Southwest	LAX 10:54	MDW 16:42	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	16%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	18%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 3151 American	SNA 16:23	ORD 22:19	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2285 American Flight history →	SNA 11:38	ORD 17:31	19%	6%	0.8%	68%
WN 889 Southwest	LAX 14:32	MDW 20:15	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:16	ORD 19:27	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	22%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	22%	6%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON