Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 716 at 10:18, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 716 Southwest	LAS 10:18	BZN 13:20	9%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 15:38 → MSP 19:35DL 2238	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 14m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672	3h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 23m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 17m	99%	92%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 27m Denver	DEN 11:59 → BZN 13:49UA 741	7h 19m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → SEA 16:16DL 2905	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	98%	89%
American Details →	LAS 06:03 → DFW 10:48AA 2932	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:29 → BZN 15:34AA 947	8h 31m	99%	87%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	6h 38m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON