Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:38, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Cleveland on time.

Nonstops that day


F9 1822 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:16	CLE 06:31	13%	3%	0.9%	63%
WN 4736 Southwest	LAS 11:55	CLE 18:49	18%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 01:04 → MSP 06:01DL 2834	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 09:59 → CLE 13:25DL 2764	9h 21m	100%	94%
United Details →	LAS 00:58 → IAH 06:08UA 2009	1h 12m Houston	IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544	7h 16m	97%	91%
American Details →	LAS 00:06 → DFW 04:53AA 3018	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → CLE 10:53AA 1172	7h 47m	98%	89%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 06m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	LAS 16:55 → SEA 19:29AS 749	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 +1AS 269	9h 48m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:49 → CLE 20:41DL 2150	9h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:57 → MSP 16:57DL 2262	3h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:43DL 1392	8h 46m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502	6h 54m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON