Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 437 LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	5%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2210 United Flight history →	LAX 22:58	BOS 07:39	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	9%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
B6 188 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:31	BOS 05:09	10%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 2453 American Flight history →	LAX 00:03	BOS 08:23	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2166 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:20	BOS 23:51	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:40	BOS 22:20	13%	5%	0.6%	81%
B6 1488 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:20	BOS 07:14	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 382 American Flight history →	LAX 14:57	BOS 23:36	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
B6 2088 JetBlue	LAX 12:55	BOS 21:44	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 11:25	BOS 20:05	16%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:45	BOS 19:20	18%	5%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:00 → JFK 07:58DL 676	1h 52m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:15DL 5733 · flown by Republic	8h 15m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 39m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	8h 01m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON