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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:08, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:35DL 430 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 9h 20m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 7h 30m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → MEM 17:21DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 9h 06m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MEM 17:02DL 1681 8h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 57m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 9h 16m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 8h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:35 → MEM 22:46DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 9h 31m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 48m Houston IAH 16:28 → MEM 18:11UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 8h 01m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 51m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 7h 11m 74% 65%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:43 → DFW 16:57AA 2890 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:45 → MEM 19:28AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 5h 45m 62% 51%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:25 → PHL 18:55AA 738 50m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MEM 21:18AA 5387 · flown by PSA 8h 53m 61% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON