Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 5288 SkyWest	LAX 16:08	MRY 17:30	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 276 United	LAX 12:55	MRY 14:15	14%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 11:47 → SFO 13:23UA 1245	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 17:18 → MRY 18:32UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	6h 45m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 15:22 → MRY 17:43AS 2290 · flown by Horizon	7h 43m	97%	77%
United Details →	LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758	1h 27m Denver	DEN 19:27 → MRY 21:16UA 1822	6h 46m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON