Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3192 LAX 13:16 → ORD 19:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:10	ORD 11:27	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1328 United	LAX 23:02	ORD 05:02	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 3161 American	LAX 23:28	ORD 05:39	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 991 American	LAX 22:29	ORD 04:35	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	11%	6%	0.7%	62%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:43	ORD 22:54	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	11%	5%	0.5%	67%
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:31	ORD 15:47	11%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:06	ORD 23:14	13%	6%	0.6%	42%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	14%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:13	ORD 16:17	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:13	ORD 21:12	16%	6%	0.6%	91%
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:31	ORD 17:44	16%	7%	0.6%	74%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	17%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	19%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	21%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:16	ORD 19:27	21%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON