Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2975 LAX 07:05 → PDX 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2457 LAX 20:00 → PDX 22:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:05	PDX 09:23	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 6424 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:26	PDX 22:05	8%	5%	0.6%	69%
AS 207 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:32	PDX 22:05	8%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 668 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	PDX 09:21	8%	2%	0.7%	95%
AS 1397 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:40	PDX 22:00	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PDX 12:20	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:23	PDX 13:44	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
AS 1356 Alaska	LAX 08:39	PDX 10:57	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2457 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:00	PDX 22:13	14%	4%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON