Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 16 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2382 LAX 08:46 → SMF 10:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2384 LAX 11:47 → SMF 13:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2382 Southwest	LAX 08:46	SMF 10:17	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	6%	3%	0.5%	76%
OO 5349 SkyWest	LAX 18:46	SMF 20:34	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:14	SMF 10:50	7%	4%	0.5%	92%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	8%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:44	SMF 20:21	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	8%	3%	0.5%	74%
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:15	SMF 10:56	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 420 SkyWest	LAX 12:34	SMF 14:14	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
OO 313 SkyWest	LAX 13:25	SMF 15:02	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:44	SMF 18:16	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 134 SkyWest	LAX 12:05	SMF 13:37	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2383 Southwest	LAX 19:15	SMF 20:42	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4171 Southwest	LAX 16:03	SMF 17:24	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2384 Southwest	LAX 11:47	SMF 13:17	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON