Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Rosa on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 24m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	96%	89%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	6h 34m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:48 → SEA 19:18AS 585	58m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → STS 22:06AS 1330	5h 18m	76%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON