Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6315 LAX 20:55 → TUS 22:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 3205 LAX 17:27 → TUS 18:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:55	TUS 22:36	9%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	10%	6%	0.6%	82%
OO 283 SkyWest	LAX 20:40	TUS 22:24	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:16	TUS 17:55	11%	7%	0.5%	no record
OO 6296 SkyWest	LAX 08:29	TUS 10:09	11%	7%	0.5%	no record
DL 3776 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	TUS 15:50	12%	9%	0.5%	81%
OO 138 SkyWest	LAX 14:12	TUS 16:00	12%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest	LAX 17:27	TUS 18:54	16%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON