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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 35m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:02 → MSP 18:43DL 2349 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 8h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406 10h 26m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 2h 07m Chicago ORD 11:16 → BZN 13:40AA 1080 8h 17m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 10:05 → BZN 12:30AA 2415 8h 30m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 33m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → LGA 08:35 → DFW 11:25AA 1987 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:29 → BZN 15:34AA 947 8h 59m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON