Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:24 am at New York)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4675 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:45	CHA 16:01	16%	4%	0.2%	74%
DL 5276 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:08	CHA 22:22	18%	4%	0.7%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → CHA 14:08DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	6h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → CHA 23:42DL 2085	7h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 13:08 → CHA 14:54DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	5h 29m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:59 → ATL 16:30DL 988	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:29 → CHA 21:25DL 1366	7h 26m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:48 → CHA 19:44DL 1769	6h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:27 → CHA 19:30DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	7h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:03 → DTW 16:46DL 308	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 20:27 → CHA 22:13DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → CHA 22:42DL 1059	7h 42m	97%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	48m Detroit	DTW 20:27 → CHA 22:13DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor	5h 13m	72%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON