Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, 9E 4988 at 09:50, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


9E 4988 Endeavor	LGA 09:50	ECP 11:43	18%	3%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	6h 54m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	7h 37m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 13m	99%	87%
American Details →	LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:59 → ECP 20:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	8h 51m	96%	80%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 10:49 → ECP 11:34AA 5262 · flown by PSA	6h 34m	98%	79%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:19 → ECP 14:28AA 2052	8h 58m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON