Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4451 LGA 09:00 → ILM 11:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4404 LGA 15:02 → ILM 17:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4451 Republic	LGA 09:00	ILM 11:04	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:05	ILM 10:54	10%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 14:33	ILM 16:21	11%	3%	0.8%	73%
DL 5204 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ILM 22:12	13%	5%	0.8%	62%
YX 4404 Republic	LGA 15:02	ILM 17:00	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON