Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Raleigh/Durham, leaving 15:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 15:30 → RDU 17:35DL 5109 · flown by Endeavor	3h 57m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 21:32 → OAK 00:04 +1DL 8947	11h 34m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON