Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5333 LGA 08:00 → ORF 09:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest 9E 5195 LGA 20:41 → ORF 22:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ORF 09:19	9%	2%	0.8%	74%
YX 4431 Republic	LGA 09:33	ORF 11:07	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4471 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:18	ORF 14:48	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 12:09	ORF 13:29	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 4589 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	ORF 22:04	15%	3%	0.7%	66%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:03	ORF 17:26	18%	3%	0.8%	60%
9E 5195 Endeavor	LGA 20:41	ORF 22:03	19%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON