Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4571 LGA 08:52 → PWM 10:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2700 LGA 14:19 → PWM 15:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:52	PWM 10:33	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
YX 5803 Republic	LGA 15:20	PWM 16:55	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 5825 Republic	LGA 21:41	PWM 23:16	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2700 American	LGA 14:19	PWM 15:29	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:50	PWM 10:22	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:00	PWM 12:32	20%	7%	2.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON