Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2531 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2531 LGA 07:10 → TPA 10:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 508 LGA 16:23 → TPA 19:22 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	TPA 10:01	6%	2%	1.3%	89%
AA 1976 American	LGA 08:07	TPA 11:08	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:40	TPA 13:28	11%	3%	1.6%	79%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:04	TPA 16:58	15%	6%	2.1%	85%
DL 2404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:39	TPA 18:54	16%	7%	2.6%	74%
DL 2433 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	TPA 22:15	19%	10%	2.7%	62%
AA 508 American Flight history →	LGA 16:23	TPA 19:22	31%	9%	2.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON