Today: WN 2590 at 19:08 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet today WN 2590 LIH 19:08 → HNL 19:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1094 LIH 13:29 → HNL 14:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2590 Southwest	LIH 19:08	HNL 19:59	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2461 Southwest	LIH 19:03	HNL 19:52	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2460 Southwest	LIH 15:41	HNL 16:30	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2589 Southwest	LIH 15:48	HNL 16:39	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1144 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:48	HNL 18:40	9%	4%	2.0%	78%
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 18:22	HNL 19:14	9%	5%	2.0%	78%
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:55	HNL 20:47	9%	4%	2.0%	83%
AS 1184 Alaska	LIH 20:44	HNL 21:36	9%	4%	2.0%	no record
AS 1124 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:14	HNL 17:06	10%	4%	2.0%	77%
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:01	HNL 17:53	10%	4%	2.0%	77%
AS 1114 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:43	HNL 16:35	12%	5%	2.0%	72%
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:39	HNL 13:31	12%	4%	2.0%	74%
AS 1104 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:45	HNL 16:22	13%	5%	2.0%	64%
AS 1094 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:29	HNL 14:21	14%	4%	2.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON