tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 7h 13m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:39UA 1384 1h 45m Denver DEN 11:24 → PNS 15:22UA 1891 6h 32m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 20m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:03 → PNS 10:57AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 5h 26m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807 5h 50m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 1h 17m Chicago ORD 11:02 → PNS 13:22UA 2492 5h 29m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON