Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: F9 4523 at 08:00, 8%.

Safest bet that day F9 4523 MCO 08:00 → AUS 10:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4647 MCO 18:45 → AUS 20:17 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:00	AUS 10:09	8%	2%	1.3%	86%
WN 286 Southwest	MCO 09:48	AUS 11:37	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	16%	5%	1.3%	82%
WN 217 Southwest	MCO 13:22	AUS 14:54	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 291 Southwest	MCO 15:55	AUS 17:40	24%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 4647 Southwest	MCO 18:45	AUS 20:17	38%	14%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON