Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 8506 at 04:18, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 8506 MCO 04:18 → BNA 05:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4788 MCO 19:59 → BNA 20:54 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 8506 Southwest	MCO 04:18	BNA 05:21	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2552 Southwest	MCO 08:43	BNA 09:46	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2559 Southwest	MCO 11:48	BNA 12:47	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:05	BNA 10:17	14%	5%	1.2%	82%
WN 2551 Southwest	MCO 12:44	BNA 13:42	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:35	BNA 16:48	22%	9%	1.8%	76%
WN 2555 Southwest	MCO 15:02	BNA 15:57	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 2557 Southwest	MCO 16:59	BNA 17:50	25%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 2556 Southwest	MCO 18:56	BNA 19:46	39%	12%	2.3%	no record
WN 4788 Southwest	MCO 19:59	BNA 20:54	41%	14%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON