Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	8h 27m	98%	90%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:59 → LAS 08:19F9 1875	2h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 11:12 → BUR 12:41F9 4107	9h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	93%	87%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → BUR 11:58AA 1208	9h 28m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 40m	100%	86%
American Details →	MCO 15:29 → DFW 17:26AA 1737	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	9h 29m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON