Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: F9 1915 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 05:20 → CLE 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 2251 MCO 21:48 → CLE 00:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	3%	2%	1.3%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 14:26	CLE 16:55	14%	5%	1.2%	92%
F9 2251 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:48	CLE 00:30	20%	12%	2.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON