Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4200 at 07:02, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 4200 MCO 07:02 → DAL 08:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 268 MCO 17:39 → DAL 19:18 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4200 Southwest	MCO 07:02	DAL 08:41	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1308 Southwest	MCO 12:38	DAL 14:15	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	MCO 14:43	DAL 16:16	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 1162 Southwest	MCO 16:28	DAL 18:09	27%	6%	2.1%	no record
WN 4202 Southwest	MCO 18:28	DAL 20:03	37%	12%	2.6%	no record
WN 268 Southwest	MCO 17:39	DAL 19:18	41%	13%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON