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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2580 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2580 MCO 07:48 → DEN 09:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2584 MCO 18:15 → DEN 20:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2580 Southwest MCO 07:48 DEN 09:46 5% 1% 0.7% no record
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history → MCO 06:00 DEN 08:07 6% 2% 1.2% 91%
UA 2307 United MCO 08:19 DEN 10:15 6% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 2581 Southwest MCO 09:43 DEN 11:27 9% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1520 United Flight history → MCO 12:50 DEN 14:51 10% 3% 0.8% 93%
UA 667 United MCO 15:26 DEN 17:50 13% 4% 1.0% no record
WN 2583 Southwest MCO 14:06 DEN 15:59 15% 3% 1.0% no record
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history → MCO 13:07 DEN 15:18 15% 4% 1.6% 85%
UA 1770 United Flight history → MCO 17:17 DEN 19:45 19% 5% 1.0% 69%
WN 2584 Southwest MCO 18:15 DEN 20:03 24% 6% 1.3% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON